The "Drive to 54" is sputtering. Fifty-four was my guess at the number of wins the Grizzlies needed to secure at least the fourth seed in the Western Conference, guaranteeing home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. At this point, it looks unlikely. They're a game and a half behind the Clippers for third place in conference, and a game behind Denver for fourth place.
Memphis has clinched a playoff spot, to be sure. However, the team looks lethargic lately (losing 3 of its last 5 games). The offense has become one-dimensional (guards dominating shot attempts) and the defense has become porous (opponents are getting to the rim at will, especially against good-passing teams).
Memphis has 11 games left, and needs to show a greater level of energy or sense of urgency on both ends. Is the team just running out of steam? Is there a disconnect in the locker room? That all-for-oneness from February seems to have faded away.
Friday night, the team hosts Houston. one of the more enjoyable teams to watch in the Association. Led by James Harden, this team likes to run as much as any team in the league. Their offensive pace puts pressure on most defenses. Wednesday night, though, they had a three-game winning streak broken in a home loss to Indiana.
The Pacers had four starters score in double figures Wednesday night. Houston gives up around 102 points per game, so Memphis will have opportunities. Will the Grizzlies take the ball to the basket, or will they settle for guards shooting long-range jump shots?
Offensively, Houston revolves around Harden. He's got the long-range jumper, the mid-range game and he can get to the basket. Tony Allen will have his hands full chasing Harden. With Allen's recent fouling troubles, if Bayless has to cover Harden it will be rough for Bayless. Harden did go 6/24 FG/A Wednesday night, so he's not deterred if he misses shots - he will keep firing.
Jeremy Lin is the point guard, and is a challenge for Conley. Lin is quick enough to stay with Conley, and will look for his offense early and often. He can be harassed into careless passes, though. He had a 4/4 assist/turnover ratio Wednesday night.
Chandler Parsons at small forward is another of Houston's assets. He's a good shooter/scorer and a willing defender. Covering him closely is a must.
On Houston's bench are guys like former lottery pick Thomas Robinson, Greg Smith and Carlos Delfino. These guys don't get a lot of pub, but they can play.
Houston is a team that "rides the wave" when things go well. If they get off to a good start, they continue pressing that advantage. If they start confidently, 120 points in a game isn't out of the question.
My guess: Going with the PPG-average offenses, Houston 106, Memphis 94. The Grizzlies's struggles continue. Harden goes off for 30+ points, Allen gets in foul trouble early, Bayless comes in and tries to make the game a personal duel between himself and Harden, and Memphis' post players get so few touches that they're visibly frustrated in team huddles.
As usual, my guesses aren't for gaming purposes, but for self-entertainment until baseball season starts.
After the Game: Memphis 103, Houston 94. At the half, Memphis was shooting 62% from the floor and had 18 assists. Guys were moving without the ball on offense, and helping each other on defense. Although it was at Houston's pace (Memphis 61, Houston 53). Memphis led from beginning to end. James Harden didn't play in the 4th quarter (wonder why?).
Memphis had 40 field goals, 24 assists and 14 turnovers. The Grizzlies had all five starters and Bayless in double figures. Randolph had 21 and 12 rebs. Gasol had another 21, 5 rebs and 4 assists. Three players (Randolph, Gasol, Allen) had 12 FGA each. Two others (Conley and Bayless) had 11 FGA each, and Prince had 9 FGA. When they share the ball, they are a good team.
Conley had 15 points, 10 assists and 4 steals. Bayless, however, did have 4 turnovers in 25 minutes and numerous careless passes. He's not yet a point guard - he can only dribble right, and makes dicey decisions with the ball. He's a veteran, but still struggles to understand his role on this team, this year.
Houston had 34 field goals, 19 assists and 14 turnovers. Motiejunas and Parsons had 16 each, and Delfino came off the bench to score 15. Houston's second unit cut a 17-point Memphis lead down to 8 in the 4th quarter, but couldn't sustain the run. Harden and Lin combined for 6/18 FG/A, for 15 points between the two. Allen chased Harden around the court quite a bit and made the night uncomfortable for "the Beard".
Next up for Memphis is Saturday night at Minnesota, then back home Monday night against San Antonio. Memphis needs to focus against the Timberwolves, get a win, then get home to rest up for the Spurs. It's easy for Memphis to get "up" for San Antonio. It's the teams like the Timberwolves against whom Memphis struggles.
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