First off, I hate to admit it, but I expect the Clippers to win in 6 games. Partly because the Clippers won at Memphis last week - they know how (duh). Partly because they are just a bit more athletic.
For Memphis to win, here's what I think I want to see out of the Grizzlies' roster:
Mike Conley - harass Chris Paul enough to minimize the high-flying circus Los Angeles normally likes to bring to games. Hit enough shots to make Paul work on defense. Don't put up with Paul's mind games.
Tony Allen - cherish the basketball. Minimize the wild forays in transition, and minimize the jump passes that have no clear receiver. Keep playing D, keep the Memphis fans excited.
Marc Gasol - look for that 15-foot set shot and the running-left-to-right hook shot more. Lately, Gasol hasn't been looking for his shot as much as in March.
Zach Randolph - show the energy that came out Wednesday night against Utah. Maybe the numbers won't be "25 points, 19 rebs", but energy on both ends helps the team. And, keep whispering in Blake Griffin's ear to challenge and distract him.
Tayshaun Prince - hit enough jumpers to keep the defense honest. Also continue being that secondary ball handler/point forward initiating offense. Continue being the steadying influence on both ends of the court and in the locker room.
Jarryd Bayless - understand the situation when you enter the game, and give the team what it needs. Some nights, it needs you to pass the ball first. Hit the deck for loose balls like you did against Utah.
Keyon Dooling - be that playoff-tested veteran, on the floor and in the locker room. Be one of the guys in the rotation that gives Paul fits for 4 quarters. And, when Paul tries his intimidation tactics, stand up to him and put him in check.
Darrell Arthur - be that two-way post player, active on the boards and in the half-court offense.
Quincy Pondexter - not only hit threes, but keep your hands up on D, keep getting deflections and keep bringing energy off the bench.
Ed Davis, Austin Daye, Jon Leuer, Willie Reed, Donte Greene, Tony Wroten - be ready. Many guys in the history of the Association have made names for themselves by thriving in unexpected situations, helping their teams win key games or even series in the playoffs. Stay focused on the bench, study up on the Clippers, and be ready if/when Coach Hollins looks your way.
For team success, to me they have to do the following:
a) stop giving up offensive rebounds - 8 or less per game increases Memphis' chances.
b) cut down on turnovers - obviously. L.A. especially loves to run off opponents' turnovers.
c) crisper passing in the half-court - if/when Memphis is 3-to-1 in assist-to-turnover ratio, their offense is more efficient and productive
In addition, the Memphis fans have to come out in full force. Fill FedEx Forum, make noise without waiting for dance teams or PA announcers to tell you, and be that "6th man" that makes a difference late in a game.
I believe Memphis can win this series. I really hope they do. Realistically, they have to do some things a bit better than they have the last couple of months. On paper, the Clippers have the better team, and the Clippers have home court advantage in this series. Good thing playoffs aren't played on paper, huh?
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