As January comes to a close (yippee!), one thing I look forward to is the start of baseball spring training. At various locations in Arizona and Florida, hundreds of ball players gather to train and compete for coveted spots at the big league level. To me, it's a much better harbinger of the coming spring than any groundhog.
My favorite team, the Nationals, are coming off a 2013 season that was a disappointment compared to pre-season expectations. Former manager Davey Johnson's "World Series or Bust" declaration was bold, but ultimately unfulfilled. New manager Matt Williams inherits a strong roster. Talent won't be an issue. Let's look at that talent-laden roster:
Outfield - last year's starters (from left field to right) Bryce Harper, Denard Span, Jayson Werth. This is a strength of the team. Harper has vowed to get bigger and stronger, to endure the grind of 162 games. This is the season where the team needs Harper on the field 150+ games. The Nats also need Harper to contribute more than 20 homers and 60 RBI. If he stays healthy, I'd suspect he can go for 30 homers/80+ RBI. If he gets off to a good start at the plate, he boosts the team into early contention. Span played Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field, and improved at the plate the second half of the season. The team needs his skill at the top of the batting order. He's gotta get on base early and often in April and May, setting a tone for the whole year. Werth is the steady pro, doing his best work in the second half to get the team back in contention. He's one of the team leaders on the field and in the clubhouse. Expect him to get 25+ homers, a .900 on-base-plus-slugging (OPS)percentage and good defense.
Infield - last year's starters (from third base to first base) Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Anthony Rendon, Adam LaRoche. When healthy, this is a strong unit. Zimmerman gutted out a tough 2013, playing through rehab of a surgically-repaired throwing shoulder. He had some throwing issues early in the season, but got stronger as the year went on. He's the face of the franchise, and hard to replace if he's out for any length of time. Zimmerman's a great defender (especially when charging slow rollers), and a dangerous hitter. Desmond is an All-Star caliber shortstop. He can do it all, and is usually good for one or two hot streaks where he's ripping line drives all over the ballpark. If the team gets off to a good start, expect him to get plenty of All Star Game consideration. Rendon showed promise after changing positions at the big-league level. He made himself a competent second baseman after playing third base in college and the minor leagues. He had some issues with concentration in the field, but improved as the season progressed. He's got doubles power, and he's quick around the bases. Expect him to grow more polished and consistent in the field this season. LaRoche provides left-handed power and a steady set of hands at first base. He had a subpar 2013 at the plate, and the team needs a bounce-back year from him. This is the final year of his contract, and there is talk of posting Zimmerman at first base when the team faces particularly tough left-handed pitchers. The team's batting order needs the balance LaRoche can provide. Offensively, will we see last year's LaRoche or the 100-RBI man from 2012?
Catcher - last year's starter Wilson Ramos. He had one more RBI than Harper last year, and Ramos played 40 fewer games. He's a threat at the plate, and a pretty good catch-and-throw guy. He handles pitchers pretty well. The big thing for him is durability. The team needs him available for 120+ games, since there is no established veteran backup catcher on the roster. If Ramos goes down with injury, that hole will be tough to replace.
Starting pitchers - last year's starters Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler. New acquisition Doug Fister. The first three guys everybody knows about. Strasburg signed a one-year deal in the off-season (avoiding arbitration). He showed improved durability in 2013. The upcoming season is the one where he needs to show he can be that number one starter that takes the ball 32 times, goes deep into games, and stops losing streaks that come up. If Strasburg does that, he'll get his big payday. Gonzalez pitched pretty good in '13, but didn't get a lot of offensive support. I expect his won-loss record to improve as the offense improves. Zimmermann was one of the best starters in the majors last year, and is durable and tough. On some other teams, he would be a number-one starter option. Continued good health and resultant production will be what the team needs from him. Detwiler, a lefty, would give the rotation needed balance. His injury issues stunted his progress. Can the team count on him for the whole season? Fister was acquired in a trade with Detroit. The tall righthander has playoff experience and tenacity. He'll fit right in with this rotation.
Relief pitchers - Rafael Soriano, Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, Craig Stammen, Ross Ohlendorf, Ryan Mattheus. New acquisition Jerry Blevins. These guys are proven, but 2013 was a struggle for some of them. Soriano closed last year, but struggled the middle of the year. Clippard was solid in a setup role, but once in a while would fall in love with his slider. Storen struggled early, got sent to AAA to work on his command, and came back more productive. Stammen was a workhorse in middle relief, and challenged hitters all year. Ohlendorf was pressed into a starting role, and usually gave the team 4-to-5 innings of competitive pitching each start. Matthews struggled at the start, got injured, got sent out to AAA, and never found his groove upon returning to the majors. Blevins (acquired from Oakland) is the left-handed option the team sought for the bullpen. The team needs 2012 levels of consistency from this unit to contend. Relinquishing leads in the late innings will demoralize any team.
Bench - outfielders Scott Hairston, Tyler Moore and Nate McLouth. Infielders Danny Espinosa, Jamey Carroll and Mike Fontenot. Catchers Jhonatan Solano and Sandy Leon. Hairston and Moore provide power off the bench. Moore can also play some first base. Espinosa has power as well, but had severe problems making contact last season. Carroll (former National) and Fontenot have big league experience, and were signed to compete for the second base/backup infielder spot held last year by Steve Lombardozzi. Neither Solano (29 in August) nor Leon (25 in March) have extensive big-league experience, and it's hard to tell if either will hold his own offensively if pressed into extended service. I expect Hairston, McClouth, Espinosa, Carroll and Solano to comprise the main bench component when the season starts (barring any future acquisitions or injuries).
On paper, this team should approach 90 wins or so in 2014. As with most teams in most sports, two keys will be a) good health for the regulars and b) a good start offensively in April. The team fell off the pace early in 2013, in large part due to the anemic offense. Too many runners were left on base in April and May. That has to change for the team to reach its post-season goals this year.
Overall, as a fan I'm excited for this upcoming season. If Washington can play to its full capability this year, it should be an enjoyable baseball summer in the District.
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