Wednesday, October 30, 2013

My Team - Game 1 of 82 - Grizzlies at San Antonio

Ok, it's finally here. On Wednesday night, the Grizz start an encore to the most successful season in franchise history. So, of course they meet the team that ended their previous season. San Antonio is the solid, smart team we've known over the years.

One key addition for the Spurs is Marco Belinelli. The shooting guard from Spain adds firepower to the second unit. Otherwise, this is a familiar bunch. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Leonard, Splitter, Bonner and Green are all still on the team. So, this team is one of the rare ones that should get off to a good start regarding execution on each end of the court.

For Memphis, Prince wasn't completely healthy during the pre-season. So, we should see lots of Pondexter in this game. But, if he's chasing Leonard or Bonner at small forward, Pondexter will be at a height disadvantage. Intensity and hustle will allow him to make up for some of the shortfall.

Miller at backup shooting guard may end up facing Belinelli at times as well. He's big enough to do it, but will he have the requisite quickness? Or, does coach Joerger play Miller some at small forward and play Pondexter at off-guard?

Otherwise, matchups should look like the usual. I suspect Gasol gets Duncan. Randolph checks Splitter. Conley gets Parker. These matchups include some of the best players at their respective positions in the whole Association. For an NBA fan, watching off-the-ball action will be as much fun as watching baskets.

Funny thing about this matchup (to me, at least). It's a classic one-way rivalry. To Memphis, San Antonio has stood in the way of the Grizzlies getting to that proverbial "next level". The Spurs have what Memphis continually strives to accomplish. On the other hand, I don't think San Antonio sees Memphis as a large rival, not when Dallas and Houston are in the same division, and another division mate (New Orleans) isn't that far away geographically. What does the Memphis team have that San Antonio wants to take away?

Wednesday night, I expect Memphis to get off to an emotional high at the beginning, jumping out to a double-digit lead in the second quarter. And, then I expect San Antonio to methodically whittle away at the lead, finally tying the score midway through the 4th quarter. Parker will either hit shots late or make sweet passes to teammates for layups to provide the final margin.

 I guess San Antonio 96, Memphis 91. It will be a hard-fought game between two good teams. Hoop heads will enjoy it.

Friday, October 25, 2013

My Team - The Grizzlies and the Upcoming Season

Next week, the NBA season starts. I look forward to it. After last year's success and subsequent change, the Grizzlies are a) a pretty good team, and b) a team with questions. How will new head coach Dave Joerger lead this team in a tough Western Conference?

On paper, it appears Oklahoma City, Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio are all better than Memphis. When you have guys like Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin or Tony Parker, your team is off to a good start. As always, each team needs good health as a key part of reaching their respective potential.

With that, I'd be ecstatic if Memphis achieved a strong four-seed come playoff time. I don't know the number of wins needed for that position, but a high-level follow-up to last season's playoff success would leave us Grizz fans pretty happy.

Let's look at the main rotation. As a fan, what would I want to see from the guys? What would help this team maximize its season? (As usual, these are my opinions.)

Zach Randolph - this is his 12th year in the league. The years & the battles in the low post are taking a toll. Perhaps him losing 5-10 pounds may help his quickness and getting his shot off. In the playoffs last year, especially against the Thunder, he did have some difficulty with quicker defenders. Eating well, getting the body maintenance to keep him going and getting plenty of rest will help him maintain a high level of play.

Marc Gasol - the reigning Defensive Player of the Year will have a target on him this season. Every night, guys will come at him to make a name for themselves. Two seasons ago, Gasol came in a bit lighter and was able to change ends quite well. Last season, he was a little bulkier (which helped him hold his position down low). Unfortunately, he too appeared to wear down in the playoffs.This year, he may be another guy who could stand to be slightly lighter.  The team needs him on the floor as much as possible.

Mike Conley, Jr. - After the Rudy Gay trade, Conley had room to be more assertive offensively. With him and Gasol, the first team had markedly improved ball movement. For this year, I'd like to see Conley consistently get 16 points and 7-9 assists each game. In addition, when he's on the floor with second team guys/other substitutes, I'd like to see him get those guys easier baskets. Keep the ball moving. Have teammates get rewarded for their moving without the ball. Conley's fast becoming one of the better point guards in the Association. Just keep growing.

Tony Allen - This man not only changed the culture in the locker room, he was a positive force actually changing how the city saw itself. Not many players can do that. He needs good health, to keep up his defensive intensity. On offense, if he can get 12 points or so a night, it makes the team so much stronger. Opponents sag off him to double Randolph (and to a lesser extent, Gasol). Allen either needs to be a consistent threat from the perimeter, or pick up easy buckets on run-outs. He'll be 32 in January - asking him to re-tool his jump shot this late in his career is probably unfair. But the team needs him to be some level of threat offensively.

Tayshaun Prince - when he showed up last year, he gave the team a dose of professionalism on the floor. None of his stats were eye-popping, but he was a nice fit on both ends. In the playoffs, he lost a bit of confidence in his shot. He needs to get that back, maybe by putting the ball on the floor more to get midrange shot opportunities.

Jerryd Bayless - I know I gave this guy grief last season, mostly for shot selection. When he's on, he can excite FexEd Forum like few others. When he's off, the team's offense gets so stagnant. I'd like him to see the difference between "being hot"/"keeping up his confidence on an off-night"/"knowing to pass more because it's not his night offensively". Once he gets a better feel for that, things should proceed smoother when he's on the floor.

Mike Miller - the former Memphis player is back, after a stint in Miami. He's got his rings. He's made a good living in the Association. He's got to bring a championship mindset and hit open threes. Some nights, he may play a lot. Depending on the match-up, on other nights he may not play as much. Keeping a calm demeanor, regardless of his workload, can be a great help to the rest of the team. His example off the floor is as important as his example on it.

Quincy Pondexter - a classic tweener, who has to play aggressive to be productive off the bench. He's a bit small to cover the better small forwards. He's not quite quick enough to cover the better shooting guards. But, he's game enough to be productive in either role in small doses. And, he is one of the few consistent 3-point shooting threats on the roster (along with Miller, Conley and at times Bayless). He has to bring energy every game. He has to be another grit-and-grind guy like Allen.

Kosta Koufos - I like his post game. He can go down low like a classic center, and occasionally go to the elbow and hit a shot. For him, meshing with Randolph and/or Gasol will be key. If he backs up Gasol, he will need to be a productive pass/shoot threat from 15 feet or so. Will be efficient as a passer and spot-up shooter?

Ed Davis - the lefty from North Carolina is a great athlete for his size. He had a few solid games off the bench after coming over from Toronto. For him, consistent physicality will be a help. Yeah, he's got good fundamentals. Can he play a grown-man, NBA-caliber, grinding post game - especially face up - on an opponent?

Jon Leuer - a darling of the advanced stats set, Leuer was another guy with some nice moments off the bench last year. He may be battling Davis for minutes off the bench. When he plays, those moments must be consistently productive. Rebound, on both ends. Hit an open shot. Make the simple pass to keep the ball moving. He demonstrated last year he can do that. Now, he has to repeat that production.

Jamaal Franklin, Nick Calathes, Willie Reed, et al - Franklin, the draft pick out of San Diego State, was seen by some as Tony Allen-Lite. That may do injustice to his own career. Between him. Calathes, Reed, Andre Barrett, Melvin Ely and Tony Gaffney, at best some of these guys will be around to learn the pro game. Some of these guys probably won't be with the team at the start of the regular season. They're all competent enough, but for some it may just come down to a numbers game.

Memphis had a great run last year. This, of course, is a brand new season. Can the Grizzlies live up to expectations? Here's a cliché I'll use to end - this team could be a better team than last year, but not go as deep in the playoffs. If other teams in the West keep their main guys healthy all year, the Grizzlies would struggle getting by a healthy Thunder team, a healthy Clippers team and a healthy Spurs team in succession - similar to last season.

Still, it promises to be an exciting time in FedEx Forum this year. We need home fans to come out in droves, and show the NBA Memphis is passionate about its' team.

My First Post To A Different Blog - Am I Excited?

I am honored, and more than a little giddy about this. Earlier this week, the guys at DC Sports Kings allowed me to contribute an article. As a guy who likes a) to write; b) to talk; and c) to spout opinion, I'm deeply appreciative of the opportunity. It's my first post for another blog, and I am truly excited about the chance to contribute.

I thank God for the chance to write & share my thoughts with an audience interested in the sports landscape in the District of Columbia. I thank the guys at DC Sports Kings for giving me a chance to contribute.

Feel free to check out my work. Feel free to disagree with what I write. Feel free to enlighten me on the topics we cover. Feel free to check out my fellow contributors at the blog. Feel free to follow them on Twitter (@DCSportsKings).

I'll still post stuff here, 'cause I've got a lot on my mind.

This new opportunity should be fun, though...

Old Dude, Old Movies - "Drive a Crooked Road"

I found this interesting for a few reasons. This 1954 release had some interesting casting. It was also nourish, but most scenes were set during the day. And it had one of those open-ended final scenes that leaves you wanting more.

This movie starred Mickey Rooney. Yeah, Mickey Rooney. This, though, isn't one of his "Andy Hardy"-style roles. Nor is it one of the "hey, let's put on a musical" roles either. Here, he's "Eddie Shannon", a gear-head to the bottom of his soul. Eddie is undersized, not very impressive at first glance. He is a skillful race driver, and an even better mechanic. His love of cars is his only love. He's a zero with the ladies, a fact about which his co-workers remind him continually.

Eddie spends his nights in a boarding house in Los Angeles, dreaming of success as a racer. He's broke, so this dream is just that. By day, he's the go-to mechanic at a local auto repair shop. (Look for Jerry Paris as one of the other mechanics). The guys wile away the hours between jobs by checking out the ladies as they walk by the shop. Eddie normally doesn't join in the ogling, since he's a loser at love. But one sunny Friday, a pretty lady comes by, looking for help...

"Barbara" (Dianne Foster) is having issues with her convertible, and asks for Eddie by name. This catches him off guard, but he takes on the task and repairs her vehicle. She is grateful, and flirts with Eddie just a bit. Eddie is perplexed, and astonished the next day when Barbara's car still isn't running right. Eddie is slightly excited to see Barbara again. Barbara is pretty, but not so pretty that she's unattainable. (This was nice casting - a bombshell like Jayne Mansfield would have been too over-the-top & unrealistic when paired with Rooney.)

It's now Saturday, and Dianne is ready to hit the beach. Her car won't run, though. She summons Eddie to her apartment, and he heads over right away. He gets to her place, gets her car started, and starts to head back to the shop before closing time. Dianne flirts some more. Eddie thinks that maybe, just maybe there is a lady on earth who is actually interested in him.

Dianne is interested alright, but her interest is a bit more nefarious. Seems her boyfriend "Steve" (Kevin McCarthy) is a stereotypical SoCal playboy. He's living a lavish lifestyle, but has no visible means of support. Steve has desperate need of a driver, and has seen Eddie drive at a local track. Dianne is showing interest in Eddie just to lure Eddie into Steve's plan.

Seems Steve's job is robbing banks, using to-the-second timing and planning to elude authorities and abscond with the loot. He needs a get-away driver, and Eddie just might fill the bill. Here's where the noir elements kick in. The three men spend hours in a darkened room, watching film of the target bank and proposed escape route. This time, the bank is in Palm Springs, and the escape route includes twisty mountain roads. Only an excellent, fearless driver can negotiate the turns and maintain the escape timing.

Steve has a partner in this deal, "Harold" (Jack Kelly), a big, swarthy guy with an air of palpable malevolence. Harold is a barely-contained loose cannon type. He's ready to go to work, and doesn't trust Eddie.

Eddie initially refuses, on moral grounds. Dianne stays just close enough to Eddie, and keeps her intentions just vague enough that Eddie is soon persuaded to join the robbers. And, what-do-you-know? The plan works. They actually rob the bank and get away. (The getaway scene, were Steve is hectoring Eddie for being a minute later than planned cracked me up. It reminded me of me when I was a young navigator.)

Now, the noir mood really kicks in. Steve, being a slick operator, has plans for Eddie. These plans aren't good ones, though. Meanwhile, Eddie is consumed with remorse, and seeks Dianne for comfort and perspective. However, Dianne is ready to leave for South America. She went to Steve with her own guilt and remorse - she talked a good, innocent man into committing a heinous crime. She hates herself for her part in seducing Eddie. She never loved him, but lured him to a place where he can never forgive himself.

Eddie goes to Steve's place, sees Dianne there, and finally gains enlightenment. He's hurt at the betrayal, and now adrift emotionally. Steve directs Harold to take Eddie "for a ride", a one-way ride. Harold is a little drunk, but this job should be easy. Eddie is too hurt and angry to be scared. He uses his driving skill to subdue Harold, and works his way back to Steve's house. The final confrontation goes down, and it involves gunshots, tears and a moonlit night on the beach. The ending is fitting, but not a conclusion at all.

McCarthy had a long, successful career in television and movies, mostly as authoritative figures. This was a nice change for him. Kelly went on to play the dashing "Bart Maverick" in the 50s/60s-era television series. Blake Edwards directed this film, and it works.

I knew nothing about this film before watching it, and was pleasantly surprised. Fans of film noir will like it. Rooney fans will see a different side of his talent. All in all, a good movie.

Sunday, October 6, 2013

My Team - Chargers at Oakland

For this game, from Chargers.com, OT Dunlap is out (concussion). OG Rinehart is doubtful (foot).

OLB Freeney (quad) and WR Floyd (neck sprain) are on the Reserve/injured list. Those two are done for the year, most likely.

Sunday night, the Chargers have an 8:35p date with the Raiders. Congratulations to the Oakland baseball counterpart making the playoffs. This event drives the football game to much later in the evening (given time needed to convert O.co Coliseum from baseball to football configuration). Good luck for anyone east of the Mississippi River watching the football game in its entirety before beginning a new work week a few hours later. At least the Chargers are still on the west coast. The adjustment of being on the road shouldn't be too difficult.

After four games, the Chargers average 396 yards per game, with 291 via pass. The Raiders give up 349 per game, including 237 passing yards yielded.

Conversely, the Raiders gain 338 yards per game, including 200 passing yards on average. The Chargers give up on average 432.8 yards, including 312 per game via the air.

Average San Diego score so far is 27-25.5. Average Oakland score so far is 17.75-22.75.

For me, the San Diego pass rush is key (as usual). Can they get to Pryor/McGloin/Flynn enough to disrupt things? With Freeney's injury, it begs the question. Yeah, Oakland runs the ball pretty well, but that means they are really one-dimensional..

On offense, can Rivers keep getting the ball out quickly? So far, the new offense has been clicking fairly well. Rivers' reads are efficient, and he's not forced too often to scramble for his life. However, they could use a bit more consistency running the ball, especially in the 4th quarter. In the two losses, the team had the lead in the second half but didn't sustain that late-game drive that puts the game out of reach.

I would love to see Ryan Mathews go for 85 yards in 20 or so carries, especially with 30ish yards in the fourth quarter to put the game away. A win would make the Chargers a mildly surprising 3-2. Sure, Denver is dominant and Kansas City is playing very well. The Chargers can keep making noise, and maybe squeeze into a playoff spot.

My guess: San Diego 24, Oakland 20. I will attempt to watch it all. It will finish past my bedtime, though...

Saturday, October 5, 2013

My Team - A Look Back At The Nationals' Season

Some team stats, courtesy of MLB.com:

OPS: .709, 16th of 30 teams
Runs scored: 656, 15th of 30 teams
WHIP: 1.23, 4th of 30 teams
Bases on Balls: 405, fewest of 30 teams
Fielding Percentage: .982, 24th of 30 teams
Defensive Efficiency Ratio: .691, 19th of 30 teams
Total Errors: 107, tied for 7th most of 30 teams

Welcome to the cherry-picking portion of my work. I watched quite a few (but not every) Nationals' game this year, and saw some good things and some not-so-good things. First, the good:

a) Young pitching from the farm showed lots of potential. Roark, Jordan, Krol, Davis and Abad all showed promise & a willingness to challenge hitters. If a healthy Detwiler or Ohlendorf can hold down the #4 slot in the starting rotation, there is gonna be enough depth to minimize flat spots in the rotation. Next year, Washington's starters are good enough to keep the team in nearly every game.

b) The bench was tweaked. Lombardozzi has a knack for contributing as a pinch-hitter. Hairston has power off the bench, but will he get enough ABs to stay sharp? There is room for OFs Brown and Kobernus to possibly make the club from the start. After Moore's demotion and recall, he showed the power he possesses. Next year's bench should be younger. Hopefully, it will be as productive as 2012's bench.

c) Guys like Rendon and Ramos showed they belong. Rendon gained more confidence at the plate as he got more ABs. He has potentially 15-homer power, but maybe that means he isn't destined to play 3B. He was nimble enough to play 2B, but had occasional lapses of concentration. Next year is crucial to show he can be a consistent major league ballplayer.

Ramos handled the pitching staff well after Suzuki was traded to Oakland. He also showed plus power as he got everyday ABs. Now, he has to stay healthy and catch approximately 140 games next year.

Overall, the team is in pretty good shape. Fielding was shaky the first two months of the season, and the fielding percentage was doomed from that point forward. The offense was shaky as well, with that not warming up until August.

What do the Nationals need for 2014? Not much, actually. A steady start to the season would make a huge difference. If the regulars play up to their capabilities, 92 or so wins is definitely reachable. That total will have them squarely in the hunt for at least a wild card slot. Good health for Zimmerman and Harper (for two examples) will go a long way towards the team getting off to a good start.

One concern I see is the back end of the bullpen. Soriano had a decent year overall, but his mid-season shakiness hurt the team. Storen has the stuff & experience to close for a pennant contender, but he too has to keep challenging hitters & not succumb to the wildness.

2013 was a disappointing season, but the team won 86 games while playing numerous rookies. I think this team is set for 2014, and potentially can be fun to watch. I can't wait.