The Nationals looked good in the home opening series against the Marlins. Starting pitching was stellar, and the team got just enough offense to win games. Florida is in full rebuilding mode, but was competitive from the first pitch of the season.
Washington has to know they won't sneak up on anyone this season. They suddenly have become media darlings, which should generate enough energy from every opponent. Who doesn't want to knock off the team everyone seems to love?
Friday through Sunday, the Nationals are at Great American Ball Park, one of the great retro bandboxes in the game today. The Nationals will send Dan Haren, Ross Detwiler and Stephen Strasburg to the mound in the three games. Haren is the guy in the rotation everyone is watching. If he gives the team a quality start (6 IP or more, with 3 or fewer earned runs allowed), the team will breathe a sigh of relief. After an injury-plagued 2012, Haren and the team both hope for a healthy year for the veteran right-hander. Haren doesn't throw as hard as he did earlier in his career, but he has the smarts to keep his team in games.
Offensively, I noticed a few things in the Marlins' series. Harper has smoothed out some of the motion in his swing. As he loaded up on the back side of his swing last year, you'd see his hands draw back and his head move quite a bit. The hands still draw, but not as much as last year. The head moves not nearly as much.
My opinion (as a guy who only played as far as high school baseball, but has also watched the game since the 70s), the guys with fewer moving parts in their swings appear to have a better chance to see the pitched ball better. Maybe this will be the case this year with Harper. In any event, he's raking so far.
Another offensive thing I saw was how Ryan Zimmerman seems to be swinging free and easy, after having shoulder problems last year. His gap-to-gap power is back. I look for teams to play him more towards the gaps as the season progresses.
The Reds' scheduled starters for the weekend are Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, and Johnny Cueto. Washington's best chances against the Reds are Friday and Saturday. While talented, Bailey and Leake aren't invincible. Bailey has a good fastball and curve, but has given up 8 earned runs in 8 innings against Washington in his 2 career starts. Leake has done slightly better against the Nationals - 19 earned runs in 33.1 innings (6 starts).
Cueto has given up 19 ER in 43.2 IP in his career against Washington. But, in Cueto's first start this season, he went 7 innings. He gave up 3 hits, 2 walks, one earned run and struck out 9. Cueto is Cincinnati's ace, and his match-up with Strasburg on Sunday should be great for fans of first-rate starting pitching.
The Reds also have hard-throwing Aroldis Chapman as their closer. After toying with the idea of making Chapman a starter, the Reds moved him back into the closer role. When he comes in, with that 100+ MPH fastball, he dominates hitters. As usual, get to the Reds early, since Chapman doesn't allow opposing hitters much late.
For the hitters, Joey Votto is the Reds' main threat. He does it all: power, average, a good eye at the plate. Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier, Shin-Soo Choo and Jay Bruce all can hit the ball out of the park.
On defense, shortstop Zack Cozart and Phillips have plus range, great arms and flair around second base. They can kill a rally with an acrobatic double play or diving stop.
Along with the defending champion Giants and the Nationals, the Reds are highly regarded this season. Some think Cincinnati can win the National League pennant in '13. This match-up is a good one, and I want to watch.
I think the Nationals win Friday and Saturday, but Cueto shuts Washington down on Sunday. Strasburg keeps the Nationals in it Sunday, but against the relievers in between Strasburg and Soriano a Cincinnati run makes the difference in a close game.
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