For Friday night, my guess - Miami 107, Memphis 92. LeBron James is gonna do what he normally does (howzabout 27 pts, 8 rebs, 9 assists, a couple of steals, a block or two and a couple of plays that make you go "whoa").
Given that, Memphis will probably be 38-19 after tonight's game. That got me wondering: how many games do the Grizzlies need to win to keep the four seed in the Western Conference?
The last five seasons, the #4 seed had a regular season winning percentage of .651, which gets you 53.4 wins over an 82-game schedule (yeah, last year had 66 regular season games). With Denver 2.5 games behind Memphis, it's imperative that the Grizzlies have home-court advantage over the Nuggets in the first round. Memphis tends to run out of steam in Pepsi Center, and if a Grizzlies-Nuggets game 7 takes place in Denver, Memphis is gonna lose.
Looking at the schedule, I wonder where Memphis will get the next 15 wins...
1 Mar - at Miami (L) 3 Mar - at Orlando (W) 6 Mar - Portland (W) 8 Mar - at Cleve (W)
9 Mar - New Orleans (W) 12 Mar - at Portland (L) 13 Mar - at Clippers (L) 15 Mar - at Denver (L)
16 Mar - at Utah (L) 18 Mar - Minnesota (W) 20 March - OKC (L) 22 Mar - at N.O. (W)
23 Mar- Boston (W) 25 Mar - at Wash'ton (W) 27 Mar - at NY (L) 29 Mar - Houston (L)
30 Mar - at Minn (W)
March guess - 9 wins, 8 losses. Cumulative record - 47 wins, 26 losses
1 Apr - San Antonio (L) 3 Apr - at Portland (W) 5 Apr - at Lakers (W) 7 Apr - at Sacto (W)
9 Apr - Charlotte (W) 12 Apr - at Houston (L) 13 Apr - Clippers (W) 15 Apr - at Dallas (W)
17 Apr - Utah (W)
April guess - 7 wins, 2 losses. Cumulative record - 54 wins, 28 losses.
With my guesswork, they could just barely keep that fourth seed. Of course, there are so many variables in play. How many more wins will Denver get? How healthy will the playoff contenders remain? How many "should-wins" will each playoff contender give away, making the "probable losses" must-wins?
I look forward to seeing how this plays out. As I root for my team, it looks like the best chance for them to have a deep playoff run would be:
- First round, over the Nuggets in 7 games, with game 7 in Memphis.
- Second round, matching up with the Spurs. The Spurs are the better team this regular season. Maybe the grind of 82 games takes a toll on the experienced Spurs.
- With the Thunder and Clippers possibly meeting in the second round, Memphis wouldn't have to play both. Perhaps the Thunder prevail in that matchup against the Clippers.
- Maybe, just maybe, all this results in a Memphis-Oklahoma City Western Conference Final. OKC is the better team, but Memphis can matchup in some areas fairly well. Tony Allen is willing and able to chase Kevin Durant around enough to make KD work for his 35 or so points.
Memphis has become an annual playoff participant lately. Now, it's time for the team to move up to become a team that consistently goes on deep playoff runs. A first-round playoff loss would be a huge step back for the franchise. They've made trades, they've gotten their financial house in order. Now, it's time to step to the forefront.
After the Game: Miami 98, Memphis 91. The Grizzlies again missed lots of close-in and midrange shots, but stayed in the game until late. They were down by one with 30 seconds left. All in all, good effort on the road.
James didn't shoot as normal (4/14 FG/A), but 18 pts, 8 rebs and 19 assists was a pretty good night. He spent most of the first three quarters setting up teammates. Wade led his team with 22, while Bosh added 13. Miami went 26/7 assist/turnover ratio.
Gasol went for 24 pts, 9 rebs, 4 assists. Allen and Prince combined for 4/13 FG/A. Conley scored 14, and added 8 assists with only 2 turnovers. He has looked even more poised after the recent trades.
On to Orlando.
After the Game: Miami 98, Memphis 91. The Grizzlies again missed lots of close-in and midrange shots, but stayed in the game until late. They were down by one with 30 seconds left. All in all, good effort on the road.
James didn't shoot as normal (4/14 FG/A), but 18 pts, 8 rebs and 19 assists was a pretty good night. He spent most of the first three quarters setting up teammates. Wade led his team with 22, while Bosh added 13. Miami went 26/7 assist/turnover ratio.
Gasol went for 24 pts, 9 rebs, 4 assists. Allen and Prince combined for 4/13 FG/A. Conley scored 14, and added 8 assists with only 2 turnovers. He has looked even more poised after the recent trades.
On to Orlando.
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