Sunday, March 3, 2013

My Team - Grizzlies at Orlando

Coach Hollins was recently named Western Conference Coach of the Month for February. That is great news for the franchise. The ownership group must get him re-signed ASAP. He's a steady hand, and is doing a great job coaching based on the team's talents. In addition, when the league recognizes your team positively, it is a tribute to the organization's overall effort.

With that, back to the games. Friday's loss was encouraging in some aspects (James didn't go wild, as I expected), but a loss is still a loss. Moral victories don't help very much during a playoff push.

Orlando hosts the Grizzlies tonight, and it should be an interesting game. When the teams met in Memphis on 22 February, the Magic were short-handed, and somewhat dispirited after trading away deep threat J.J. Redick. Now, the new pieces are in place. Friday night, in a loss 110-118 to Houston, new acquisition Tobias Harris went for 27 and 10 rebs off the bench. Four Orlando starters scored in double figures, and the fifth starter (PG E'Twaun Moore) scored 9 with 11 assists and only one turnover. The Magic shot 56% from the floor, and had a 30/14 assist/turnover ratio. They also jacked up 22 3pt attempts, making nine of them.

Now the bad news: Houston shot 54.% overall, 15 for 32 on 3pt attempts, and went 28/12 on assist/turnover ratio. Houston was down 86-87 at the end of the third quarter, then went on a mini-rampage to pull out the road win.

For Memphis, which normally doesn't score that much, they have to keep doing what they do. Keep the game in the low-to-mid 90s. The Gasol-Vukovic matchup will again be a fun one to watch. Vukovic was plagued with fouls in the 22 Feb meeting, fouling out after playing only 25 minutes. He only scored four, but got 11 rebs in that short stint. Gasol, meanwhile, got 19, 13 rebs and 4 assists. I expect both post players to get double-doubles while matched up against one another. If you like titanic battles in the post, where two behemoths grapple for position & advantage, you'll like this matchup.

To me, Randolph is more of a key than usual. It appears he is either wearing down or the league is starting to counter some of his pet moves. It didn't help that he turned an ankle on the first offensive possession Friday night. It seems he doesn't have the lift in the post that he had before. He was never a high-flyer, but he was lighter on his feet than he is now. Memphis needs the "first name 20, last name 10" Randolph to win.

Another fun matchup is Tony Allen versus Arron Afflalo. Afflalo is one of Orlando's main scorers, and has a green light to shoot from anywhere. He's a competent 3pt shooter, and attacks the basket with determination. He's similar-sized to Allen, and just as ornery.

My guess: Memphis 97, Orlando 94. Orlando can win this game, and would cause Memphis trouble if that's the case. Memphis needs to hit mid-range shots early, something they haven't done the last few games.

After the Game: Memphis 108, Orlando 82. Those mid-range and point-blank range shots the Grizzlies have missed lately, they made tonight. Both teams emptied their benches at the start of the fourth quarter. Gasol had 11 assists in three quarters, and Ed Davis had 10 pts, 10 rebs.

Randolph's sprained ankle from Friday's game kept him out of this one. Good thing the team made up for his absence.

As you know, I love two stats in particular - assist/turnover ratio and assists to made FGs.  Tonight, assist/turnover was 31/13. Those 31 assists (a season-high) aided in 44 made FGs. This team has to move the ball smartly to be competitive with upper-echelon teams. If/when this team bogs down with needless dribbling, the offense gets ugly in a hurry.

The next two Memphis games are home against Portland (Wednesday) and at Cleveland (Friday). The beat goes on.

It's Sunday evening, and I'm gonna put on some Art Garfunkel to soothe my nerves.

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