I was surprised at Friday night's home win against Houston. After watching the Grizzlies struggle just to get back in the game at Madison Square Garden, I expected the team to continue unraveling. Watching Memphis play a more cohesive game against the Rockets reminded me just how good the team can be. They played to their strengths, but ran enough fast-breaks to get some easy baskets. As more guys got touches either in the primary or secondary break, the whole team seemed more upbeat.
A Memphis team with more energy and togetherness can beat any opponent. They really need to be "five basketeers" on the floor. "First option/supporting cast" nonsense doesn't work for Memphis, because they don't have a LeBron James/Kevin Durant-type player who's always the best player in the building whenever he suits up.
Given that, it's the back half of yet another back-to-back. It's the fourth straight Friday-Saturday back-to-back this month. When you add the 12-13 March back-to-back (Tuesday-Wednesday), it's the fifth such schedule arrangement this month. In the previous four "back end of back-to-backs", Memphis is 3-1. The loss was that 16 March 6-point loss at Utah, where Memphis looked spent.
The Grizz take on a Minnesota Saturday that's even more depleted. Dante Cunningham suffered at right wrist injury. But, the Timberwolves got a home win over Oklahoma City Friday night, 101-93. Kevin Durant got 36, but Russell Westbrook only scored 18. Minnesota had five guys in double figures - four starters and Chase Budinger off the bench. Nikola Pekovic had 22 points and 15 rebs (including 7 offensive). That mountain of a man keeps doing work. Ricky Rubio had 17 points, 7 assists, but shot 4/11 FG/A.
This game is part of Minnesota's sixth back-to-back in March. The Timberwolves are 1-4 in second-game-of-back-to-backs this month, with the only win a 31-point victory at Phoenix on 22 March.
Last five games, Minnesota has gone win-loss-win-loss-win. Over that stretch, they've averaged 107.4 PPG, and have given up 97 PPG. Yep, with Rubio they want to run. With guys like Budinger, Luke Ridnour and Andrie Kirilenko, than can run effectively.
My guess: Memphis 104, Minnesota 102. Memphis has shown they can run, if they play cohesive. Gasol and Pekovic will again tussle in the post, with Gasol's ability to hit that 15-foot set shot and the running hook causing Pekovic to come away from the deep post area. Rubio will throw a couple of passes that make the home fans go "wow!" Conley will harass Rubio enough defensively (and hit enough shots) to make Rubio's night not very enjoyable.
My concern is whether or not Memphis looks past Minnesota towards the Monday night home game against the Spurs. If this were college, you'd call the Minnesota game a "trap game".
As always, my guesswork isn't for gaming purposes. It's just guesswork, no more, no less.
After the Game: Memphis 99, Minnesota 86. In the first half, Ricky Rubio had his way with the Memphis defense, including a coast-to-coast slalom for a layup to beat the halftime buzzer. That gave the Timberwolves 50 at the half, leading Memphis by five.
Second half, Minnesota scored only 36 in the twenty-four minutes. As old-time announcers might have said, "there's a lid on the Timberwolves' basket". Minnesota got shots up, but many just didn't fall. Memphis' defense was pretty good, but not invincible.
Memphis had 37 baskets, 25 assists and 9 turnovers. Gasol had 21 points, 8 rebs, 6 assists (but 4 turnovers). Conley had 19 and 4 assists. Randolph scored 14, with 7 rebs. Arthur came off the bench to add 15 crucial points. He gave the team a real lift in the second half. The second unit as a group went after Minnesota with energy and verve.
Minnesota had 29 field goals, 19 assists and 16 turnovers. They got a career-high 23 from Rubio, who added 10 rebs and 9 assists. He did have 5 turnovers, though. Derrick Williams added 19, and Greg Stiemsma added 12 and 7 rebs. Pekovic did not play (ankle injury), but Cunningham (wrist) played 16 minutes, going 2/8 FG/A.
A 21-6 Memphis run in the second half was key to this victory. Coupled with a Clippers' loss Saturday night at Houston, Memphis ends the night in fourth place in conference, a half-game ahead of those same Clippers.
Also for Memphis, it was a team season-record 20th road victory. Happy Easter, and Memphis goes home to get ready for the Spurs. Monday's game will be on NBA TV.
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